![]() ![]() For the new Silk Road to survive, it will need many paths, not one. More connectivity ultimately means more resilience. Building more pathways of connectivity may initially appear to create more avenues for pathogens to spread, but it also allows us to circumvent trouble spots if and when they arise. Asia has not been dominated by a single power since the Mongols, and their place in history looks to be intact. Just as the plague decimated the Mongol khanates and splintered its grip on Eurasia, so too will the coronavirus encourage China’s vassal states to look for other partners in the geopolitical marketplace. Though the Chinese were once Mongol victims, modern-day China is often likened to the expansionist Mongol empire. These nations-as well as Europe-are helping weaker Asian states stand up to China in defending their islands, avoiding its debt traps, and finding alternatives to Huawei 5G telecom systems. Japan is gaining national confidence India is on a military buying spree and just hosted US President Donald Trump to reaffirm the countries' commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific maritime region. Rather than viewing China on a linear path to Eurasian dominance, China’s own neighbors are coming out of its shadow. In 1347, it entered Europe via Italy’s port of Genoa. Making its way westward via Silk Road merchants and caravans, the plague took several years to reach Persia, where it killed the Khan overlord Abu Said as well as half the population. Hebei Province bore the brunt of China’s plague fatalities, with 5 million of its residents perishing in the 1330s. The 14th-century plague is said to have originated in China's Hubei Province, with bacteria contracted from marmots. If we’re smart, we respond by creating sensible frictions to avoid being dominated by a single hegemon. ![]() Trade routes and infrastructure expand imperial influence interruptions along them heighten awareness of our vulnerabilities. These parallels tell us something crucial about the present state of geopolitics. But a striking overlap exists between the path of today's viral spread and the path that emerged in the 1300s. It is, of course, far too soon to make such dire predictions about Covid-19. Parag Khanna ( is the author of Connectography (2016) and The Future is Asian (2019). ![]()
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